By Tom Albrecht | Mar 03, 2021 | Market Analysis
By our calculations, the new listings to sales ratio in February was 1.5:1 (with under 2:1 indicating a seller's market), and the absorption rate was 4.4 (with anything under about 4.5 indicating a seller's market.)
This means prices are rising in some housing types (moderately), and negotiations are often favoring buyers. Notably, the strength of our seller's market at this time, is not strong, as compared to other housing markets across Canada. Further, it varies according to the housing type.
In our opinion, the shift into a seller's market has been primarily caused by this lack of supply.
It is worth noting, however, that we have noticed a sizeable shift in the shape of demand over the past 2 months.
As you can see in the above table, for the first time in 7 years, we are seeing demand equally distributed among the price ranges (for no-condo). We believe this is due to a) a return of confidence, and b) a growing cohort of people now able to "move up" into larger, more expensive homes.
This is leading to relatively tougher market conditions for sellers in the lower price ranges (sellers to balanced) and relatively easier ones in the high price ranges (buyer's market right the way to balanced or seller's market).
Townhomes had a very active month. Apartments remain oversupplied but much less so than previously. We are watching insurance rates and condo fees, which may fall due to 2021 being five years away from the wildfire. This could change the investor equation and make these properties a "buy".
It is our belief that the Fort McMurray market has reached a bottom for almost all housing types (either 2020, 2021, or 2022) and the future after that will be determined primarily by oil/pipelines. So the future is unknown. We know we will see more of a "move-up" market over the coming years, and eventually fewer foreclosures.
This spring, homes will continue to be easier to sell, which is providing an opportunity for people who have been saving & waiting to sell their homes. On the flip side, there are likely going to be parts of the market in which buyers will find it harder to find and secure quality properties.
If you'd like an A-Team agent to sell your home, or you'd like to be referred to a quality sales agent in Fort McMurray to help you sell or buy, please feel free to reach out.
1 The interpretations of any MLS® data used are my own and don’t reflect the opinions of the Calgary Real Estate Board or its members. There is plenty of my opinion here, but the data we are using is super accurate. I am not permitted to predict the future and this article does not attempt to do that. In all of the charts, tables, and statistics in this post, the source data covers residential and land sales in the following areas: Abasand, Anzac, Beacon Hill, Dickinsfield, Downtown, Eagle Ridge, Grayling Terrace, Gregoire Park, Gregoire Lake, Parsons North, Prairie Creek, Saprae Creek, Stonecreek, Thickwood, Timberlea, Waterways, and Wood Buffalo